NFL Fantasy players - Who's a fluke and who's for real?

There were many surprises in week 1 of the NFL. Brian Urlacher out for the season, Mark Sanchez winning on the road in Houston, even San Francisco beating Arizona.

Another surprise was the performance of some players. We all knew Drew Brees was going to have a big year, but six touchdowns in the first week? AP running over Cleveland for 180 yards and 3 scores?

But hey, those guys are quality players that perform week in and week out. They’re going to have huge weeks like that once in a while. But, what about those players who weren’t expected to have solid fantasy points? Below is a list of players that put up some quality numbers in week 1. The question is, can they do it again?

• Julius Jones – Seattle Seahawks – 19 rush, 117 yds, 1 TD – 2 rec, 19 yds

For Real – When the Seahawks picked up Edgerrin James, many people thought he’d take away a lot of carries from Julius Jones. On Sunday, Seattle used James mostly as someone to give Jones a rest. Jones ended up with 19 rush attempts. The Rams did give up the fourth highest rushing yards per game in 2008, but expect to see Julius Jones continue getting attempts. Unless he’s going up against a stout rush defense, like Minnesota or Pittsburgh, Jones makes a solid play.

• Mark Clayton – Baltimore Ravens – 5 rec, 77yds, 1 TD – 1 rush, 9 yds

For Real – Clayton is the starter opposite Derrick Mason. Mason originally retired, but then returned Brett Favre style. Mason is normally the go-to-receiver for Joe Flacco, but Sunday, Clayton stepped into that role. He could continue to fill that spot increasingly as Mason is now 35 years old. The Ravens did play Kansas City, who gave up the fifth most receiving yards per game in ’08; So don’t expect big numbers when Baltimore plays good pass defenses like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

• Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos – 17/28, 243 yds, 1 TD – 1 rush, 3 yds

Fluke – Orton started his first regular season game Sunday with the Denver Broncos. His career quarterback rating is 72.0. He’s never thrown for over 3,000 yards in a season. He’s also never thrown more than 20 TD passes. The Bengals gave up the eighth most touchdown passes last year and, up until the last eleven-seconds of the game, Orton hadn’t thrown one against them. In fact, without that miracle pass to Stokley, Orton would have only thrown for 156 yards and 0 TDs.

• Devery Henderson – New Orleans Saints – 5 rec, 103 yds, 1 TD

For Real – Henderson is the second receiver on the hottest offense in the NFL. It should be no surprise he did this well against the Lions, as they gave up the third-most passing touchdowns in 2008. So far in 2009, they’re first. He may not put up big numbers every game, but Henderson’s role in the Saints’ offense is apparent.

• Mike Bell – New Orleans Saints – 28 rush, 143 yds

Fluke – Don’t everyone go out and pick up Mike Bell off the waiver-wire. 143 rushing yards looks very tantalizing, I admit. The only reason he got those yards, though, is his 28 rushing attempts. There are two reasons as to why he was trusted with that many attempts. First, Pierre Thomas was sidelined with a knee injury, giving Bell the start. Second, the Saints were up big on the Lions and QB, Drew Brees, had thrown six touchdown passes. Even if Thomas doesn’t return next week against the Eagles, which he might, the Saints are going up against a defense that only allowed DeAngelo Williams to gain 37 rushing yards, and held Jonathan Stewart to even less.

• Carnell Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 13 rush, 97 yds, 1 TD

For Real – Like I said in the Overlooked players article, the Cadillac is back. Williams didn’t go up against a weak defense when he played the Cowboys. In 2008, they gave up the twelfth lowest rushing yards per game and tied for the eighth lowest in rushing touchdowns allowed. Cadillac managed to gain almost 100 yards and a TD in the first half. Expect Derrick Ward and maybe even Earnest Graham to steal some carries from Williams, but he’ll put up solid numbers because he’s the starter. Just imagine if Tampa Bay was winning and wanted to run the clock out.

• Antwaan Randle El – Washington Redskins – 7 rec, 98 yds

Fluke – Since being with the Redskins, Randle El hasn’t gone over 730 receiving yards in a season, and has only gone over 600 once. The only reason he caught seven balls for 98 yards is because the Giants shut down Santana Moss. That’s not always going to happen. I would stay away from any Redskins wide receiver this year, as they can be inconsistent. Randle El will have a few more games like Sunday’s this season, but it’s a crapshoot as to when they’ll happen.