Class is in session; 2009 rookie quarterbacks

The performance of rookie quarterbacks in 2008 leaves high hopes and high pressures for newcomers in 2009. Let’s face it, though, 2008 was a very rare occurrence. Two quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the ‘08 draft – Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Both led their respective teams to the playoffs.

Flacco wasn’t even supposed to start for the Ravens last season. Kyle Boller suffered a season-ending injury and Troy Smith was ill. Flacco took over and the Ravens ended up losing in the AFC Championship game to the Steelers. Needless to say, there are high expectations going into this year.

Enough about last year’s rookies. This year, there were three quarterbacks taken in the first round – Matthew Stafford (Detroit), Mark Sanchez (NY Jets), and Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay).

Stafford and Sanchez have already been named the starting QBs. Freeman is listed second on the Buccaneers’ depth chart according to their website.

Here’s why you shouldn’t expect much from them this season. Look at all of the recent quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft. Between 2004-2007, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Vince Young, and Matt Leinart all started at least 7 games their rookie year.

Ben Roethlisberger was the only one who had success his rookie year. In 2004, he was the starting QB for 13 games and led the Steelers to an astounding 15-1 record, but lost in the AFC title game. Roethlisberger finished the season with 17 TDs, 11 interceptions, and a rating of 98.1.

Also in ’04, Eli Manning started 7 games for the NY Giants. He was not as successful. Manning finished the year with a 48.2 completion percentage, 6 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 55.4. The Giants finished 6-10.

The following year, San Francisco 49ers’ QB, Alex Smith, was number one on the depth chart for 7 games. Overall in 2005, he threw just one touchdown. He was, however, able to throw 11 interceptions. His 40.8 QB rating was apart of a 4-12 season for the Niners.

During the 2006 season, Vince Young started 13 games for the Tennessee Titans. He passed for about 2,200 yards, had a 51.5 completion percentage, and threw 12 TDs and 13 pics. His quarterback rating was 66.7. The Titans finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

Because of the recent resurrection of Kurt Warner, many have forgotten that Matt Leinart started 11 games for the Arizona Cardinals in 2006. He finished the year with a little over 2,500 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a QB rating of 74.0. The Cardinals were last in the NFC West and had a record of 5-11.

No rookie quarterback started 7 games in 2007.

Going by this ratio, one out of every five rookie quarterbacks has a successful first year. Last season, there were two. The odds aren’t favoring Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford. Even worse for Stafford, he’s being thrown onto the field with the only NFL team to go 0-16.

This doesn’t mean that Sanchez, Stafford, and Freeman are going to have terrible careers. There are plenty of QBs who had an unsuccessful first year, but great careers – like the other Manning brother (not Cooper).

In his rookie year, Peyton Manning had 28 interceptions to go along with his 26 TDs. He had a 71.2 quarterback rating as the Colts finished the season 3-13. He’s pretty good now.